Syrian Oil Production 2006 - 2021

Layth Alkhani
December 10, 2023

Submitted as coursework for PH240, Stanford University, Fall 2023

Introduction

Fig. 1: Graph illustrating the daily Oil Production in thousands for each year from Table 1. [1] - (Image Source: L. Alkhani)

The Middle East is home to over twenty countries, many of which are known for being some of the world's top oil producers. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE are some of the countries that today have become synonymous with the term oil but one name missing from the list is Syria. Although Syria is not the first country that comes to mind when the term oil is mentioned, the reality is that through 2011, Syria was the eighth-largest producer of oil in the Middle East. [1]

If we take a deep dive into the production of oil per year in Syria it is clear to see that Syrian oil production until 2011 was relatively stable. [1] A steep decline in oil production and a more noisy trend did not come until after that year beginning in 2012. [1] The percent change in Syrian oil production annually can be calculated for each year since 2006 by taking the average production of oil in thousands of barrels per day and multiplying it by 365 days to get the total production for a calendar year. The total values can then be compared to highlight trends in production value over the past nearly two decades.

Data

Year Barrels Per Day (thousands) Total Production # % Change From Previous Year
2006 421 1.54 × 108 bbl y-1 N/A
2007 404 1.47 × 108 bbl y-1 -4.55%
2008 406 1.48 × 108 bbl y-1 +0.68%
2009 401 1.46 × 108 bbl y-1 -1.35%
2010 385 1.41 × 108 bbl y-1 -3.42%
2011 353 1.26 × 108 bbl y-1 -8.51%
2012 171 6.24 × 107 bbl y-1 -51.63%
2013 59 2.15 × 107 bbl y-1 -65.54%
2014 33 1.20 × 107 bbl y-1 -44.19%
2015 27 9.85 × 106 bbl y-1 -17.9%
2016 25 9.13 × 106 bbl y-1 -7.31%
2017 25 9.13 × 106 bbl y-1 +0%
2018 24 8.76 × 106 bbl y-1 -4.05%
2019 34 1.24 × 107 bbl y-1 +41.55%
2020 43 1.57 × 107 bbl y-1 +26.6%
2021 96 3.50 × 107 bbl y-1 +223%
Table 1: Syrian Oil Production 2006 - 2021. [1]

Analysis

Based on the findings it is clear to see that when transitioning from the oil production from 2006 to 2011 where the average was 395 thousand barrels per day, there is a sharp decline in 2012. [1] Following the nearly 52% decrease the total production of oil continues to fluctuate in the negative directions however, if we look at the years 2018 - 2021 it is possible to see that there has been a steady increase in oil production numbers. [1] These trends can also be viewed visually in Fig. 1 where a positive slope is seen from 2018 - 2021 [1]. These findings are intriguing as the decline in oil production first was noticeable in 2012 right around the time when the Syrian civil war first began. Considering the correlation in oil production and the state of the civil war the question then becomes whether the increase in production in recent years can tell us about the state of the war in Syria and whether the country is en route to more peaceful times.

© Layth Alkhani. The author warrants that the work is the author's own and that Stanford University provided no input other than typesetting and referencing guidelines. The author grants permission to copy, distribute and display this work in unaltered form, with attribution to the author, for noncommercial purposes only. All other rights, including commercial rights, are reserved to the author.

References

[1] "BP Statistical Review of World Energy," British Petroleum, 2017, 2022.