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| Fig. 1: Laguna Verde Nuclear Power Plant (Source: Wikimedia Commons). |
Among the constant threats facing humanity is the increase in the development and possession of nuclear weapons, as well as the access that non-democratic nations have to nuclear material. The use of nuclear energy for hostile purposes has proven to be lethal and catastrophic. In response to the growing global nuclear threat in the middle of the Cold War, the international community established political and legal frameworks that limited and in some cases eliminated the growth and possession of nuclear armament by belligerent states. As a consequence, a legal regime of non-proliferation emerged and established cornerstone treaties such as the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and the Treaty of Tlatelolco in Latin America.
The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) has ensured that member states that already have nuclear weapons do not increase their quantity and that those who do not possess any will not have access to a nuclear arsenal. In Latin America there are countries with different levels of nuclear development. Argentina and Brazil have high nuclear development, Mexico (see Fig. 1), Cuba, Peru and Chile have medium nuclear development, and Venezuela, Uruguay and Colombia have incipient nuclear development. Paraguay, Ecuador and Bolivia maintain isolated nuclear activities, mainly in medical applications. As a result of the growing presence of nuclear activity in the region, with the exception of Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Cuba, all Latin American countries adhered to the Treaty of Tlatelolco from its inception in 1967. But it has not been until 2017 when all the countries of the region fully ratified the NPT.
Each treaty had its own creation process, and each faced various political and legal difficulties, mainly related to the individual interests of the different nations. The contribution that Latin America has made to the nuclear non-proliferation regime are noteworthy, since they have made the territory a Nuclear Weapons Free Zone (NWFZ), an initiative that was followed by other regions of the world. Africa: through the Treaty of Pelindaba, South East Asia through the Treaty of Bangkok and the South Pacific region through the Treaty of Rarotonga.
NPT initiatives in Latin America have focused part of their efforts on achieving complete disarmament by the nuclear powers, either by complying with the conditions of the treaties or by adhering to the instruments that completely prohibit nuclear arsenal. Under Mexico's leadership, the work of Latin American nations has been essential in strengthening non-proliferation regimes. Furthermore, the Treaty of Tlatelolco and the TPNW have been the pillars for Latin American nuclear governance due to the creation of structures and instruments for the multilateral organizations that enforce the peaceful use of nuclear energy. [1]
Latin American governance is the result of the missile crisis in the 1960s. From that moment on, Latin American governments have focused their political efforts on creating and implementing mechanisms that would prevent any nation in the region from being used militarily for the interests of any nuclear power. As already mentioned, the cornerstone of the nuclear non-proliferation regime in Latin America is the Treaty of Tlatelolco, and one of the particularities of this document is that, like the NPT, it faced multiple challenges to be ratified by all member states. Especially the biggest oppositions from the nuclear interests of Brazil and Argentina, which ended up ratifying the treaty 27 years after signing it.
Towards the second half of the 1960s, Brazil and Argentina found themselves in a nuclear race, in which both countries had programs for the development and acquisition of nuclear technology under the argument of peaceful use; however, both nations experienced a change in position towards both instruments as a result of the establishment of a bilateral institutional framework for the management of their nuclear affairs. Worth mentioning is Argentinas Bariloche Atomic Center commissioned by the National Atomic Energy Commission in 1955 with the main purpose of deepening the understanding of nuclear energy through research and development. As a result of nuclear competition between both countries, the Treaty of Guadalajara was signed in 1991, which guaranteed the peaceful nature of nuclear programs in the region, and established the Brazilian-Argentine Agency for Accountability and Control of Nuclear Materials. In July 2017, within the framework of the United Nations Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) the government of Mexico took new steps to solidify NPT initiatives in the region, and certified an initiative that completely prohibits the development and possession of nuclear weapons. This initiative has emerged as the main instrument that can finally achieve the complete elimination of nuclear weapons in the world, not through sanctions, but through the stigmatization around its possession. [2]
The NPT treaties signed in Latin America are evidence of the strength that characterizes the Latin American nuclear non-proliferation regime. It allows us to affirm that the region is, indeed, a territory free of nuclear weapons and that the nuclear energy projects that countries like Brazil, Mexico and Argentina have, are exclusively for peaceful purposes. The contributions of the region have brought the world closer to a context in which a complete prohibition of nuclear weapons, although difficult, is increasingly probable.
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| Table 1: Nuclear energy production by country. [3] |
The presence of nuclear energy in Latin America is not very significant, as only three countries (Argentina, Brazil and Mexico) have nuclear plants, and the energy capacity coming from nuclear sources is very low, less than 1% of the total generation power installed in the region. In 2021 the generation of nuclear electricity throughout Latin America was 0.34 exajoules or 94.4 TWh (see Table 1). [3] After the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster, countries in Latin America have taken different positions towards the use of nuclear energy. Countries that own nuclear plants (Mexico, Brazil and Argentina) have plans to keep their plants and increase operations. Other countries like Ecuador, Chile and Uruguay have announced that they will continue the plans and research for eventual nuclear implementation. And finally, countries like Venezuela, Bolivia and Peru have announced that they will stop nuclear exploration. [4]
According to the International Energy Agency the global consumption of electricity in Latin America will increase from 806 annual TWh in 2007 to 1,438 TWh in 2030. In other words, the expected growth in electricity consumption will be 78% greater than in 2007. However, only less than 2% will come from nuclear plants. [5] On the other hand, renewable sources (other than hydro) that generate electricity in Latin America are expected to grow more than double of nuclears grow. However, the region still faces a high dependence on fossil fuels as an energy source, and countries such as Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Paraguay and Peru have uranium reserves, which would allow a possible change of attitude towards the use of nuclear energy. Having access to uranium reserves does not mean that countries in the region will start increasing their capabilities to build nuclear plants. Building and operation costs of nuclear plants, as well as the lack of interest of external investors make it difficult for governments in the region to invest in nuclear facilities, while other renewable sources offer cheaper solutions. As long as the cost of nuclear plants remains high in comparison to other alternatives, nuclear power will remain a very unlikely alternative.
It can be said that nuclear energy does not play an important role in Latin America, its use is purely for civil purposes and not military. Although countries like Cuba have aspired to obtain nuclear weapons in the past, and Argentina and Brazil even had programs in this regard, no state in the region has developed an atomic arsenal. To ensure that nuclear use continues to be for peaceful purposes, countries in the region have agreed to the Treaty of Tlatelolco which was signed in 1969 by the majority of countries with the exception of a few who eventually signed it. The Treaty of Tlatelolco declared Latin America a nuclear weapons free zone; additionally, all Latin American countries are members of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which encourages civil use of this technology and ensures that it is not used for military purposes. While the Treaty of Tlatelolco and the IAEA were accepted by most countries from the beginning, there was controversy surrounding the discussions about the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) because it has been believed that it favored nuclear states like China, the United States, France, the United Kingdom and Russia.
Mexico, Argentina and Brazil are the only three producing countries of nuclear energy in the region. In Argentina, the government has commissioned building a fourth reactor, the Atucha II, and in Brazil a third, the Angra III. These two projects will cost several billion dollars and because of their risky nature, high opposition has arisen from the civil society. Furthermore, the presidents of Venezuela, Bolivia and Peru, have officially renounced their plans to produce nuclear power in the future. While nuclear energy companies and the governments of Mexico, Argentina and Brazil highlight the safety of their nuclear power plants, social and environmental organizations warn that an accident can never be completely prevented and criticize the lack of good contingency plans. Nuclear waste also represents another challenge as no country has an effective solution to waste management.
Some scientists and non-governmental organizations such as Greenpeace highlight the great capacities that Latin American countries have to use renewable energy and point out that, for this reason, nuclear energy is not necessary to guarantee power supply. Especially considering that the contribution of nuclear energy to the grid is only 6%. However, nuclear technology is not only used to produce electricity, but its use also extends to medicine, mining and agriculture. If used properly, countries would greatly benefit from having access to nuclear energy, but the future is unclear. If we take a look at history, the region has had regimes and political instability that will make having more extensive oversight essential, but at the same time, the commitment to nonproliferation has been greater, and countries regardless of political leaders have adhered to their agreements.
© Luis Sanchez. The author warrants that the work is the author's own and that Stanford University provided no input other than typesetting and referencing guidelines. The author grants permission to copy, distribute and display this work in unaltered form, with attribution to the author, for noncommercial purposes only. All other rights, including commercial rights, are reserved to the author.
[1] M. Marín Bosch, "La No Proliferación de Armas Nucleares a Fines del Siglo XX," Revista Mexicana de Política Exterior 50, 130 (1996).
[2] V. Puga Alvarez, "Cooperation for Regional Security: The Effectiveness of the Latin American and Caribbean Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone (NWFZ)," in Security and Safety in the Era of Global Risks, ed. by R. Compel and R. Arcala-Hall (Routledge, 2021).
[3] "BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2022," British Petroleum, June 2022.
[4] J. Baek, "A Panel Cointegration Analysis of CO2 Emissions, Nuclear Energy and Income in Major Nuclear Generating Countries," Appl. Energy 145, 133 (2015).
[5] B. Andrasko, "Looking Ahead: A Human Security Perspective to Tackling the Potential for Widespread Environmental Migration in Latin America," in The Climate-Conflict-Displacement Nexus from a Human Security Perspective, ed. by M. Behnassi et al. (Springer, 2022).
