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| Fig. 1: Satellite image of the Salar de Uyuni, part of "The Lithium Triangle" (Source: Wikimedia Commons) |
Since the development of the first electric battery, the voltaic pile by Alessandro Volta in 1790, electrochemical energy storage systems have emerged as practical electricity sources for mobile devices and other non-stationary electric systems. While their first application for ground vehicles was in the 1830s, internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV) offered longer ranges and prevailed for many years as the main type of mechanical transportation. However, only in 2019, passenger ICEVs released 3 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, raising concerns about their long-term environmental impact. [1]
As new battery designs reach 450 Wh/kg energy density at scale, electric vehicles (EVs) are becoming major actors in the automotive industry. They have found their place in the market as environmentally friendly alternatives having zero tailpipe carbon emissions. Both new and well-established automotive companies started offering hybrid and fully electric vehicle options, creating an increasing demand for battery materials. Currently, the predominant type is the Lithium-ion battery, which is not only used in EVs but also in small and large electronics and appliances, emergency power backups, and solar power storage. [2]
A lithium-ion battery uses lithium as the key material for its functioning. This chemical element is abundant on Earth's surface, with a total of 22 million tons of identified resources. In 2021, Australia was the primary producer amounting to 55,000 tons, followed by Chile and China, with 26,000 tons and 14,000 tons, respectively. [3] While the Lithium Triangle (see Fig. 1), a region of The Andes around the borders of Chile, Bolivia, and Argentina holds more than half of the known lithium reserves, several economic and political factors have affected production.
The two largest concentrations of lithium are located in South America and Australia. Chile leads with 9.2 million tons of economically extractable lithium reserves; in the second and third positions, we find Australia and Argentina, with 5.7 million tons and 2.2 million tons, respectively. [3] The distant geographical locations also translate into different sources of natural lithium and processes of extraction. In Australia, this mineral is found in hard rocks and clusters of crystals known as spodumene, while South American lithium is extracted from salar brine water. [4]
To extract Australian lithium, we first dig the hard rocks out of the ground in open-pit mines. The resulting rocks are crushed, heated at 1100°C, cooled to 65°C, milled, and roasted again, this time with sulfuric acid, at 250°C. It is then pulverized, sorted by size, and, finally, cleaned, obtaining spodumene, which has a theoretical lithium content of 8.03%. Hard rock lithium extraction can cost up to twice the cost of brine processes. [5]
The process of extraction of South American lithium is a lengthy process that can take up to a few years to complete. First, the brine has to be drilled or blasted for access to be later pumped to the surface and distributed to evaporation ponds. Most of the liquid water content is extracted through solar evaporation until the brine reaches an ideal lithium concentration. It's later pumped to a lithium recovery facility for extraction. Since this process is so efficient, it represents a low-cost solution. [5]
Access to relatively high amounts of natural resources doesn't necessarily lead to higher relative production. In the majority of countries where lithium is extracted, this mineral is defined as concessional or exploitable, such as in Australia, Canada, and the US. However, in countries with higher lithium concentrations, such as Bolivia and Chile, its extraction is restricted by law.
Bolivia's 2009 constitution declares the state as the lithium owner, administrator, and the only entity allowed to extract this material. The government entity Gerencia Nacional de Recursos Evaporticos (GNRE) is in charge of designing projects for the industrialization of Bolivian lithium to keep foreign companies away from this endeavor. They also include a relatively high royalty tax of 12.5% and a property tax of 25%, as as shown in Table 1. Bolivia's current vision is to become a competitive producer in the international market, for which they have developed a cooperative strategy with external entities such as Kores (Korea Resources Company). Although initial mining programs have failed, Bolivia's new president's agenda focuses on developing rapid lithium development. [4]
For its part, Chile's lithium can be extracted from private companies with the due authorization of the Comision Chilena de Energa Nuclear (CCHEN), as the government considers it a material of nuclear interest for its functional relevance in nuclear fusion reactors. [4] Chile has the lowest production as a percentage of the country's estimated reserves among the four largest lithium producers, with 0.2%, compared to Australias 1.9%. [3]
Argentina is a particular case since they have an exceptionally high income tax of 35% and a low royalty tax of 3%. Lithium is considered a strategic resource in the provinces of Catamarca, Salta, and Jujuy, which are the locations of Argentina's most extensive salt flats. Projects of lithium extractions need to be approved by a committee of experts before starting operations. [4] This committee is comprised of experts from the Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET) and the Universidad Nacional de Jujuy, who are nominated by the provincial legislature, the Agencia de Gestión Ambiental, and the provincial mining department. [6]
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| Table 1: Public policies in the management of lithium in countries with the largest reserves. [4] |
To put all the production and reserves numbers into perspective, we need to study the global demand for lithium. All-electric and hybrid vehicles sales went from 308,000 in 2020 to 608,000 in 2021. It's estimated that the current lithium-ion battery pack for a single car contains roughly 8 kg of Lithium. [7] For our rough calculations, we will assume that this number will not change dramatically over the next eight years and that most electric cars sold will have Lithium-ion battery packs. In a situation where the EVs penetration market scenario is medium, in 2030, sales are expected to reach 2.2 million vehicles sold per year or, equivalently, about 12% of total vehicle sales. [8] This allows us to calculate an estimate of the total Lithium mass needed in the US in 2030, as follows:
In market scenarios with high penetration, this number can be more than tripled. [8] Based on the data, we can see that the demand for lithium will continue increasing as EV sales also increase. This calculation only includes the US lithium demand for the next years, neglecting the one from the rest of the world, which is also expected to grow.
The scenario of lithium is not one of a material availability problem but one of production. The Lithium Triangle has enormous production potential, but it's not being leveraged most efficiently due to economic and political contexts. The closeness of these reserves could be a relevant factor in creating multilateral agreements between these three countries to strengthen each other's mining capacity, positioning themselves as world production leaders. The cheap methods of lithium extraction in South America can be critical to a stable lithium market for the following years. As governments and global efforts enforce the conversion to zero-emission transportation, maintaining a balanced supply of lithium will be essential to ensure the low cost of EV production.
© Benjamin Muñoz Cerro. The author warrants that the work is the author's own and that Stanford University provided no input other than typesetting and referencing guidelines. The author grants permission to copy, distribute and display this work in unaltered form, with attribution to the author, for noncommercial purposes only. All other rights, including commercial rights, are reserved to the author.
[1] "The 2021 EPA Automotive Trends Report, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, EPA-420-R-21-023, November 2021.
[2] C. Iclodean et al., "Comparison of Different Battery Types for Electric Vehicles," IOP Conf. Ser. Mater. Sci. Eng. 252, 012058 (2017).
[3] "Mineral Commodity Summaries 2022, U.S. Geological Survey, January 2022.
[4] "Mercado Internacional del Litio," Comisión Chilena de Cobre, Diciembre 2013.
[5] V. Flexer, C. F. Baspineiro, and C. I. Galli, "Lithium Recovery From Brines: A Vital Raw Material For Green Energies With a Potential Environmental Impact in Its Mining and Processing," Sci. Total Environ. 639, 1188 (2018).
[6] "Boletin Oficial," Provincia de Jujuy, Nro. 27 Año XCIV, 4 Mar 11.
[7] D. Castelvecchi, "Electric Cars and Batteries: How Will the World Produce Enough?," Nature 596, 336 (2021).
[8] "Summary Report on EVs at Scale and the U.S. Electric Power System," U.S. Drive, November 2019
