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| Fig. 1: Installed power capacity in Spain's NECPs target scenario. [4] (Source: G. Megias Homar, after the IEA.) |
Electricity is the second largest energy source in Spain after oil. In 2019, it accounted for 24% of total final consumption (TFC). The demand has been sustainedly growing over the last decade across many sectors. Meanwhile, there has been a substantial process of decarbonization in electricity supply with renewable sources contribution increasing from 24% in 2009 to 38% in 2019. Similarly, coal-produced electricity is undergoing a phase-out process due to its increased production costs. Coal production has mostly been substituted by natural gas electricity production. Looking ahead, in the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) for 2021-2030, the Spanish government has set the goal of reaching a share of 74% of electricity generation by renewable sources. [1] Along these lines, one of the set objectives has been to phase out all nuclear plants by 2027. More generally, the electricity production goals set by the NECP are shown in Fig. 1.
The aim of this report is to evaluate the investment savings that could be achieved if the nuclear plants were not phased out and were, instead, maintained and improved.
The Spanish government estimated that the increase in renewable electricity sources and the phase-out of nuclear power and coal would require a private-public investment of €91.8 billion, as laid out in the INECP Plan. [1]
Let us now first consider how much electricity is currently produced by nuclear plants in Spain. Based on the INECP Spain currently has 7 nuclear reactors with a capacity of 7.40 GW and plans to reduce the capacity to 3.18 GW, resulting in a loss of electricity generation of 4.22 GW.
The planned increase in renewable sources from 2020 to 2030 is 61.52 GW. Given the estimated investment that this requires, the investment per Watt is, €91.8 × 10-9 / 61.52 × 109 W = €1.49 W-1. If the current nuclear plants were not to close, then the need for additional renewable power generation capacity would be reduced to 61.52 GW - 4.2 GW = 57.30 GW. Given the price estimate provided by the government, this would require an investment of 57.302 × 109 W × €1.49 MW-1 = €85.473 billion. This would result in €6.26 billion of savings from the current plan.
Our analysis shows that maintaining the current nuclear plants, would provide 4.22 GW of electricity production, saving the country €6.29 billion in the investment of alternative renewable sources. Additionally, the increased number of droughts in Spain caused by climate change is another factor that should be taken into account when considering the phase-out of nuclear power. [2] Given the significant dependence of Spanish energy production on hydropower, the accessibility to an alternative power source such as nuclear plants could prove key in severe droughts. In fact, the largest hydropower plant in Spain recently stopped electricity production because of the depletion of the Mequinença dam. [3] Moving forward, the maintenance of the Spanish nuclear plants seems to be not only economically advisable but also climatically necessary.
© Fuillem Megias Homar. The author warrants that the work is the author's own and that Stanford University provided no input other than typesetting and referencing guidelines. The author grants permission to copy, distribute and display this work in unaltered form, with attribution to the author, for noncommercial purposes only. All other rights, including commercial rights, are reserved to the author.
[1] "Plan Ncional Integrado de Energía y Clima," Ministerio Para la Transición Ecológica y el Reto Demográfico, Boletín Oficial del Estado, BOE-A-2021-5106, No, 77, Sec. III, 36799, 31 Mar 21 (Spain) ["Integrated National Energ and Climate Plant 2021-2030"].
[2] M. d. P. Jimnez-Donaire, J. V. Giráldez, and T. Vanwalleghem, "Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Droughts in Spain," Water 12, 3214 (2020).
[3] "Endesa Parará la Producción de Electricidad en la Central de Mequinenza Por la Sequía," La Vanguardia, 31 Oct 22.
[4] "Spain 2021: Energy Policy Review," International Energy Agency, 2021.