Renewable Electricity in Sweden

Introduction

Fig. 1: Wind power in Sweden. (Source: Wikimedia Commons)

In this report we analyze the current state and future prospects of renewable electricity generation in Sweden. Sweden has one of the highest primary energy consumption rates per capita in Europe: 2.19 × 10¹¹ J in 2021. [1] This is much bigger than the average primary energy consumption in the European Union: 1.35 × 10¹¹ J. [1] At the same time Sweden is one of the greenest countries in Europe. In 2021 it has emitted only 4 × 10⁷ tonnes of CO₂ from the combustion of fossil fuels which, taking in mind Sweden has a population of approximately 10.5 million, results in 3.8 tonnes of CO₂ per capita. [1,2] In comparison, a similar calculation shows that the average person in the European Union contributed about 6 tonnes of CO₂ through the combustion of fossil fuels. [1,2] One of the main reasons Sweden has such low CO₂ emissions is its electricity generation which is almost completely free of fossil fuels. [3] Sweden generated 161 TWh or 5.8 × 10¹⁷ J of electricity in 2020. [3] From this 63% came from renewable sources, i.e. hydropower, wind and solar, and the remaining percentages were mainly from nuclear energy. [3]

Hydropower

In 2020 hydropower generated 72.5 TWh or 5.8 × 10¹⁷ J of electricity which makes up 45% of the total generated electricity. [3] This makes hydropower the main source of electricity in Sweden. [3] However, hydropower plays a more important role than just electricity generation due to its ability to regulate its production. Indeed, hydropower currently has and will probably continue to have the essential role of balancing the grid. [4] This could become even more important if the share of wind energy in Sweden increases as wind is inherently a volatile energy source. [4] In contrast to wind and solar, the future of hydropower is more clear. In a report by the Swedish Energy Agency, four possible models for the state of Swedish electricity in 2050 are examined. [4] In all of them, hydropower will have a major role and its electricity output will not change significantly.

Wind Power

Wind power is the fastest-growing renewable source in Sweden in the last decade (Fig. 1). In 2010 wind energy was responsible for only 2.5% of the total generated electricity. [5] In 2020 wind power generated 28 TWh or 1.01 × 10¹⁷ J of electricity which makes up 17% of the total generated electricity. [3] Nevertheless, the long-term future of wind energy in Sweden is uncertain. On one hand, Sweden has declared that it will strive to reach 100% renewable electricity by 2040. [3] This makes increases in wind energy a likely option. Indeed, the Swedish Energy Agency has proposed an electricity model where wind contributes 70 TWh in 2050, about 2.5 times more than in 2020. [4] The benefits of this are obvious as nuclear dangers and waste, and CO₂ emissions will be reduced greatly. The drawback of this model is the volatility of wind power which may require consumers to be flexible in their energy use. [4] On the other hand, the Swedish Energy Agency also proposes future electricity models where wind power does not play an essential role, rather it is substituted by an increase in nuclear energy. [4] Recently the political climate and public sentiment in Sweden have warmed toward the prospects of more nuclear power. [6] Furthermore, the Swedish Energy Agency has noted that the 2040 target for 100% renewable electricity is not a strict cut-off date for nuclear energy. [3]

Solar Power

In 2020 solar power contributed only 1TWh or 3.6 × 10¹⁵ J which is less than 1% of the total generated electricity in Sweden. [3] Nevertheless, Sweden does have interests in developing more solar power in the future although it is unlikely to become the backbone of electricity generation. [4] Similarly to wind, solar is a variable energy source and could again require the population to have flexible energy use. [4] Still, the Swedish Energy Agency estimates that solar may produce as much as 30 TWh in 2050, i.e. 30 times more than current levels. [4] This makes solar a possible tool for the 2040 target of 100% renewable electricity.

Conclusion

Sweden has a wide diversity of renewable energy sources. It could serve as an example to other countries trying to lean off fossil fuels. The future of electricity in Sweden is complicated but observing its development in the next decades could provide valuable lessons for other countries.

© Chavdar Lalov. The author warrants that the work is the author's own and that Stanford University provided no input other than typesetting and referencing guidelines. The author grants permission to copy, distribute and display this work in unaltered form, with attribution to the author, for noncommercial purposes only. All other rights, including commercial rights, are reserved to the author.

References

[1] "BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2022," British Petroleum, June 2022.

[2] "Key Figures on Europe," Eurostat, May 2021.

[3] "Energy in Sweden 2022 - An Overview," Swedish Energy Agency, September 2022.

[4] "Four Futures: The Swedish Energy System Beyond 2020," Swedish Energy Agency, October 2016.

[5] "Energy in Sweden 2011," Swedish Energy Agency, November 2011.

[6] M. Palsson, "Sweden and Nuclear Power," Physics 240, Stanford University, Fall 2020.