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| Fig. 1: Renewable Energy Production in AMLO's First Half of Presidential Term [4] (Source: B. Felix) |
The world is currently facing one of its most dire threats ever in the form of climate change. Hoping to mitigate the effects of this phenomenon, scientists have been fiercely advocating for the transition to renewables - sources of energy that emit practically no greenhouse gas pollutants. However, the extent to which some countries have committed to achieve the necessary changes is questionable. In fact, current data suggests that most nations are not on track to meet their own goals codified in the Paris Accords earlier this century. [1]
Since the presidential elections of 2018 that saw Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) rise to power, Mexico has faced serious global backlash regarding large-scale restructuring in the energy sector. The current president's actions to restore fossil fuel-driven state firms as the supreme force in the market and restrict private investment in renewable energies has undone the progress of previous administrations in the eyes of many experts. [2]
At the moment, Mexico generates roughly 86.27 TWh or 26.7% of its electricity from green sources. [3] It is also in a favorable position to further increase these numbers given the low costs of labor and its prime geographical conditions. Despite President AMLO's various reforms against clean energy since he took office in 2018, the production of energy from renewable sources has shown steady growth, with an average yearly increase rate of 14.45% - the most prevalent of these being hydroelectric, wind, and solar power in that order. [4] Compared to the former president's last year in office, however, this shows a drop of 7.26% on a yearly basis. [5] The exact breakdown of these annual changes among distinct sources of renewables can be seen in Fig. 1.
Although the graph shows multiple trends, potentially the most exciting is that of solar energy, which has increased 600% since 2018. There is even more upside: the country's daily solar irradiation is 1,600-2,250 kWh/m2 or roughly six to eight billion joules per square meter, one of the highest among industrialized nations; this means that if only 0.1% of its territory were converted into photovoltaic power plants, it would be sufficient to cover its whole yearly electricity consumption. [6] The slight limitation to this, though, is the extensive physical distance from the deserts in the north to metropolitan areas around the country. France, for context, would need over 1.0% of its territory for that.
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| Fig. 2: Yearly increase in renewable energy capacity in AMLO's term [4] (Source: B. Felix) |
Thus, we know that the presence of renewable energy in Mexico has increased steadily over the past few years at rates somewhat comparable to the past, albeit slightly lower, and has the potential to grow even further. Delving deeper into the government and the numbers, it becomes apparent that the government has had at least some sort of role in propagating the use of clean energy. The Federal Electricity Commission, the state-owned electric utility that accounts for the majority of energy generated in the country, was responsible for developing the infrastructure for an additional average of 25,358 MW of clean energy yearly during the first half of President AMLO's six-year presidential term. [4] The private sector, on the other hand, merely created the capacity for 15,499 MW of renewables on an annual basis. This relationship can be seen graphically in Fig. 2.
Evidently, both public and private production of green sources of energy are increasing at stable rates, with minimal deltas on a year-to-year basis. Hence, the data seems to suggest that Mexico is rapidly making the transition to clean energy, with significant growth on a yearly basis. However, it is important to note that, in the meantime, the Mexican government has also been investing heavily into boosting its production of fossil fuels- having opened a multi-billion dollar oil refinery in Tabasco with many more underway - which seems to support the notion that the government's efforts have at least been partially focused on non-renewable forms of energy. [2] In spite of President AMLO's pro-fossil fuel and anti-clean energy rhetoric, the nation has made advancements in both industries in recent years; while this makes it impossible to determine the trajectory the country is currently taking, it also goes to show that ultimately the executive government does not have absolute control over the energy sector in Mexico and there are other factors at play - crucially, money and political relations.
Putting this all into a global perspective, Mexico emitted 418.348 yearly million metric tons of carbon dioxide in 2021, which represents approximately 1.1% of the world's total. [5] Crucially, however, the annual carbon dioxide emissions dropped 13.1% from 2019 to 2021, an observation that will be elaborated upon further in the conclusion.
The current evidence does not point to a definitive conclusion on the effect of President AMLO's policies on the energy sector in Mexico. Despite the restrictions being imposed to private investors and the favorable attitude taken towards fossil fuels, it appears as though the production of renewable energy in Mexico has been steadily increasing over the last three years. In fact, at this current rate of growth, Mexico would have net zero emissions within a matter of a few decades. Although Mexico's global emissions have indeed dropped significantly since President AMLO took office, this is likely explained by the effects of the pandemic. Ultimately, seeing whether this trend continues over the next few years will be the key aspect, as it is certainly a possibility that the work from the previous administration has carried over this whole time, thus impeding one from spotting the real nature of these policy changes.
© Bruno Felix. The author warrants that the work is the author's own and that Stanford University provided no input other than typesetting and referencing guidelines. The author grants permission to copy, distribute and display this work in unaltered form, with attribution to the author, for noncommercial purposes only. All other rights, including commercial rights, are reserved to the author.
[1] "Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement," United Nations, FCCC/PA/CMA/2022/4, October 2022.
[2] O. Lopez, "Mexico Sees Its Energy Future in Fossil Fuels, Not Renewables," New York Times, 19 Aug 22.
[3] "Mexico: North American Clean Energy Powerhouse," U.S. Department of Energy, DOE/GO-102022-5721, April 2022.
[4] "Programa de Desarrollo del Sistema Eléctrico Nacional 2022-2036," Secretaría de Energía, Mexico, 2022.
[5] "Reporte de Avance de Energías Limpias - Primer Semestre 2018," Secretaría de Energía, Mexico, 2018.
[6] "Global Photovoltaic Power Potential by Country," World Bank, June 2020.