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| Fig. 1: Distribution of reasonably assured in situ uranium resources by country. [1] (Source: E. Courtney) |
As nuclear power continues to present an important alternative to carbon-based fuels, uranium and other fissile materials represent a valuable source of energy. This report presents a brief analysis of publicly available estimates of the world's supply of uranium ore, comparing both the total amount and the estimated cost of uranium ore extraction to a nation's gross domestic product (GDP) in order to identify nations whose economies may benefit most from an increased global demand for nuclear fuel.
The ore estimates presented here are estimates of reasonably assured in situ (RAIS) uranium ore as reported by a joint publication of the International Atomic Energy Agency IAEA) and the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA). [1] Here, RAIS uranium ore is understood by these agencies to be in the ground, but may or may not have been positively confirmed to be usable or extractable, and thus may represent a moderate overestimate of the total recoverable uranium ore in a given country.
As shown in Fig. 1, twelve countries hold more than 90% of the world's RAIS uranium ore. In particular, Canada, Kazakhstan, and Australia control roughly half of all identified RAIS uranium deposits, with over three million tonnes of combined ore. In 2018, the IAEA estimated the global consumption of uranium ore to be 59,200 tonnes per year providing a capacity of 396 gigawatts. [1] At that draw rate, simple division states that Australia's RAIS ore could supply the world's nuclear fission reactors with uranium for about 25 years, and the world's current supply of RAIS ore (~6.2 million tonnes) will last 104 years.
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| Fig. 2: Total extracted uranium in 2018 and its value as a percentage of national GDP. [1-4] No 2016 GDP data was obtained for Niger or Uzbekistan and the 2021 GDP was used instead. [5] The relative value for China, India, South Africa, and USA's uranium is less than 0.01% and is not visible. (Source: E. Courtney) |
The gross domestic product (GDP) of a nation is a single number that represents the monetary value of the goods and services produced and sold by that nation in a single year. As such, it has little to no correlation with the amount of uranium ore held in a country's territory. However, it is still interesting to identify the countries with relatively large uranium deposits relative to their GDP, as these countries have the most to gain from a nuclear energy economy. As a product on the global market, uranium ore's price is relatively independent of its source; Fig. 2 shows both the absolute amount of uranium ore extracted by the 12 most productive nations in 2018 and its total value as a percentage of the nation's 2016 GDP. GDP values from the OECD converted to USD via the appropriate exchange rates and the uranium was valued at the average 2016 rate for multi-annual contracts of $91.32 USD/kgU, as reported by the NEA. [1-4] The total amount of RAIS uranium globally is estimated at about 6.2 million tonnes (6.2×109 kg) and is worth about $500 billion USD; however, only 1.5 million tonnes are thought be to be extractable for less than $80 USD/kg, which is the approximate sale price borne by the market from 2011-2019. [1] Thus, barring a major energy crisis or new extraction technology, only about a quarter of the world's uranium is likely to be extracted. Furthermore, as shown in Fig. 2, most nations are unable to convert their supplies of uranium into enough money to boost their GDP by even a few percent. On the scale of the global economy, even $500 billion dollars is almost insignificant - for reference, the 2016 US GDP was $18.7 trillion USD, enough to purchase the world's RAIS uranium supply 37 times over. [2]
As a particular example, Kazakhstan is the leading producer of the world's uranium. With its relatively low GDP (~$192 billion USD), high uranium reserves (>500,000 tonnes), and strategic positioning between Russia and China, it is well poised to benefit from extracting its own uranium resources. By 2018, annual extraction of Kazakh ore had reached 21,700 tonnes of uranium, holding a market value of about $1.7 billion USD at ~$77 USD/kg. [1] However, despite being the leading producer of uranium ore and having a relatively low GDP ($192 billion), Kazakhstan's uranium exports represent a mere 1% of its GDP, and current estimates predict that the current rate of extraction will almost completely deplete its resources within 25 years.
A relatively large fraction of uranium ore is controlled by a handful of nations, and as a well-understood source of energy with established methods of extraction, refinement, and use, continued demand for the resource can be reasonably expected. As uranium is a non-renewable resource, countries with these large reserves stand to benefit as demand increases, with Australia, Kazakhstan, and South Africa particularly poised to benefit from the monetary value of the resources as other nations seek out new sources of energy to power their economies. However, even major uranium exporters with low GDPs like Kazakhstan and Namibia have a relatively small percentage of their GDP represented by the sale of uranium; together with the relatively small supply of uranium ore globally and the high cost of extraction, it is unlikely that most countries will be able to provide a significant long-term boost to their economies by selling uranium.
© Elijah Courtney. The author warrants that the work is the author's own and that Stanford University provided no input other than typesetting and referencing guidelines. The author grants permission to copy, distribute and display this work in unaltered form, with attribution to the author, for noncommercial purposes only. All other rights, including commercial rights, are reserved to the author.
[1] "Uranium 2020: Resources, Production and Demand", Nuclear Energy Agency, NEA No. 7551, 2020.
[2] OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2019, Issue 2 (OECD Publishing, 2020).
[3] "Exchange Rate Statistics, December 2019: Statistical Supplement 5 to the Monthly Report," Deutsche Bundesbank, December 2019.
[4] "The Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Report 2017," World Economic Forum, 2017.
[5] "Gross Domestic Product 2021," World Bank, 1 Jul 22.