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| Fig. 1: Nord Stream 2. Its path runs from Russia, through the Baltic Sea, directly to Germany. (Source: Wikimedia Commons) |
As winter looms and Europe faces record-high natural gas prices, whose increase is also reflected in electricity costs, the United States and European Union increasingly see Russia as an antagonist in the region's energy politics. Accused of manipulating the European market by withholding supply to keep prices high and pressure German leaders to approve the Nord Stream 2 pipeline (see Fig. 1) that runs directly from Russia to Germany through the Baltic Sea, Russia increasingly shoulders the blame for Europe's forecasted energy crisis according to western media. [1]
To some, the EU's vulnerability given its interim reliance on natural gas is a cautionary tale about the necessity for careful planning when transitioning to a system that runs on cleaner and renewable energy sources. Although natural gas has fewer greenhouse gas emissions than coal, Europe's shift towards natural gas for energy has made it increasingly reliant on Russia. [2] Its second most important energy source, the EU imports 60% of its natural gas, with more than 40% coming from Russia. [2] Comprising 25% of its gas imports, the US is a leading producer of EU liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports. [3] Despite US energy secretary Elizabeth Granholm's affirmations that the US is "united with our European allies in making sure [they] get adequate, affordable gas supply," the Eropean Commission cites increased demand for LNG and a premium in Asian markets as one of the factors behind the increase in European wholesale gas prices, soaring from 19 € MWh-1 in April 2021 to 70-75 € MWh-1 by September 2021. [1,3] Given the fraught political scene and the environmental limitations of wind and solar energy, how many nuclear power plants would be required to to alleviate European reliance on a historic adversary for energy?
In the first half of 2021, the EU imported 170.3 × 109 m3 of gas, with Russia supplying 42%. [4] Assuming the EU imports gas at a similar rate during the second half of 2021 and given a heating value of 38.3 × 106 J m-3 for natural gas, 340.6 × 109 m3 of natural gas would generate 5.5 × 1018 J. While each energy source has its advantages and drawbacks, let us consider nuclear power to reduce the EU's dependency on Russia given its weather-independent nature despite the high cost and time commitment to construct nuclear reactors. Assuming each nuclear power plant consists of a reactor with an average annual power generation of 8000 GWh, based off of US averages, the number of nuclear reactors necessary to offset Russian natural gas imports would be: [5]
| 5.5 × 1018 J 8000 GWh × 3.6×1012 J GWh-1 |
= | 191 nuclear reactors |
While initial US opposition to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline may have been rooted in valid regional security concerns, neither the plan to impose sanctions on an ally nor the choice to shift more LNG exports to the more expensive Asian markets signaled a consistent, unambiguous plan to ease the impending energy crisis. Although the US remained the EU's largest LNG source in the second quarter of 2021, increased exports to China, another historic adversary, driven by high prices made it the US's largest LNG market. [6] In directing exports to more expensive markets, US vendors, which are independent of the government, have benefited from high natural gas prices and likely helped keep them high. Since building nearly 200 nuclear reactors in the transition phase to renewable energy sources is not feasible, the US government should find ways to help its ally in the face of dependence on an adversary rather than striking a critical tone and threatening to impose sanctions that will inevitably hurt consumers.
© AnnaMaria Dear. The author warrants that the work is the author's own and that Stanford University provided no input other than typesetting and referencing guidelines. The author grants permission to copy, distribute and display this work in unaltered form, with attribution to the author, for noncommercial purposes only. All other rights, including commercial rights, are reserved to the author.
[1] S. Reed, "Here's What's Behind Europe's Surging Energy Prices," New York Times, 29 Oct 21.
[2] S. Reed, "Global Natural Gas Crunch Roils Consumers and Industry," New York Times, 29 Oct 21.
[3] L. Jakes and S. Erlanger, "In Deal With Germany, U.S. Drops Threat to Block Russian Gas Pipelines," New York Times, 30 Oct 21.
[4] "Quarterly Report on European Gas Markets," European Commission, 2021.
[5] "Monthly Energy Review, November 2021," U.S. Energy Information Administration, November 2021, Table 8.1.
[6] "LNG Monthly," U.S. Department of Energy, November 2021.
